AUK Marine and Mining
North Riding, Johannesburg
Risk & Response Model · South African Coastline
A single working model carrying the coastline from hazard scoring through to the minute an Emergency Towing Vessel connects a tow line — built on the navigational hazard matrix, area ratings and ETV response methodology developed for South Africa's coastal salvage strategy.
Live coastal risk picture
Hover a coastline segment, port, or hotspot marker — or a row in the register — to see how they connect. Colour reflects the composite hazard rating for each area.
Five linked modules
From hazard scoring through to the minute a response asset connects — every module feeds the same coastline picture.
19 factors across 5 categories, weighted into a composite score — environmental, traffic, historical, charts, physical coastline.
All 7 areas ranked and mapped, with ports and known navigational hotspots overlaid on the real coastline.
AIS, VTS, LRIT, TSS and more — tracked by status and efficacy, adjustable per scenario.
DNV bollard-pull physics and time-to-connection vs. time-to-grounding, area by area.
Fay spreading and Okubo diffusion theory model drift, footprint growth, and landfall timing live.
7
Coastal areas
19
Hazard factors
5
Known hotspots
2017
Source strategy
Grounded in named physics
Fay (1971)
Three-regime oil slick spreading theory — gravity-inertia, gravity-viscous, surface-tension-viscous.
Okubo (1971)
Empirical turbulent horizontal diffusion, fitted to open-ocean dye-release experiments.
DNV towage
Standard offshore bollard-pull formula — wind, current and wave-drift force components.
AUK, 2017
Source hazard matrix, area ratings and ETV methodology from the original salvage strategy.
A screening-level model for briefing and scenario comparison, not operational response. Get in touch if you'd like to explore making it operational — live weather/AIS feeds, validated against real incidents, with an availability commitment scoped to your needs.
A walkthrough takes 20 minutes and covers every module — hazard scoring through to incident response.
Request a walkthrough